Like many organizations worldwide, we’ve been working to respond constructively to the unprecedented Covid-19 pandemic. While we’re not public health experts, we’ve redirected our technical and analytical resources to create a tool that helps cities address the growing spread of Covid-19 nationwide.
Using data from the CDC, US Census Bureau, and Department of Homeland Security, we’ve mapped key factors—like infrastructure, health, and demographics—that the CDC has linked to Covid-19 vulnerability. This tool provides detailed information on the 500 largest cities in the U.S., zooming in to the census-tract level. No city or community, regardless of its wealth, healthcare system, or demographics, is immune to Covid-19. Our goal is to highlight the areas most at risk, helping local leaders take swift and informed action to address this crisis.
How it is constructed
The tool features a ranking of the 500 largest U.S. cities based on their overall vulnerability to Covid-19, with Rank 1 being the most vulnerable and Rank 497 the least. The rankings are determined by aggregating vulnerability scores from all census tracts within each city. Additionally, the tool provides aggregate scores for three key factors contributing to each city’s vulnerability: underlying health issues, population demographics, and health infrastructure. For a deeper analysis, the full datasheet, including all indicators used, is available for download.
The index analyzes data on existing health conditions and healthcare capacity to identify communities at higher risk of outbreaks and assess their ability to respond effectively. It focuses on three key factors of vulnerability to COVID-19: population demographics, underlying health issues (highlighting areas with more vulnerable populations and higher transmission risks), and health infrastructure (indicating how well communities can handle a health crisis like the pandemic).
Each of these three aspects combines the values of various indicators that measure factors increasing vulnerability, weighted based on existing CDC analyses. The aggregated values for each of the three components of this vulnerability index, along with the overall vulnerability assessment, are presented on a 0-100 scale. A score of 100 signifies high vulnerability, while a score of 0 represents low vulnerability. Details about how this tool was developed are available in the methodological note at the bottom of this post.
The data reveal that a significant number of the most vulnerable cities are concentrated in Florida and the industrial Midwest’s Rust Belt. Of the 50 most vulnerable cities, 17 are located in Florida, and 16 are in the Rust Belt. In other words, two-thirds of the nation’s most vulnerable cities are situated within these two regions.
Gary, IN, holds the position as the most vulnerable city in the United States, while Detroit—a major regional hub with a population of approximately 672,000—is ranked as the sixth-most vulnerable city in the country.
On the opposite end of the spectrum, Provo, UT, and College Station, TX, share the title of the least vulnerable cities in the U.S., both tied at rank 497. Many of the less vulnerable cities are home to colleges and universities, such as Provo and College Station. These cities often have younger populations and, in some cases, benefit from the presence of major university-affiliated medical centers. Most of the least vulnerable cities have populations in the range of 75,000 to 200,000, although larger cities like Denver, Seattle, Austin, and Minneapolis also exhibit lower levels of vulnerability.
By analyzing cities at the census-tract level, this study highlights significant disparities that may exist within individual cities. For instance, major metropolitan areas such as Atlanta, GA, Miami, FL, and Chicago, IL, rank among the most unequal in terms of Covid-19 vulnerability. Atlanta, in particular, demonstrates the fifth-largest disparity in community vulnerability across the country. Further research is necessary to better understand these disparities—not just in the most unequal cities but across all urban areas—to more effectively identify and assist the most vulnerable populations in every city.